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The figure is 120, 000 barrels per day dropped by the Minister of Petroleum Resources, Dr. Rilwan Lukman, who posted the nation's January export at 2.2 million barrels per day.
Confirmation of the actual export figures as against output figures is expected from the Central bank of Nigeria to measure the actual revenue performance of the petroleum industry at the opening of the year.
According to the data of exports from OPEC countries to international petroleum exchanges collated from lifting details of trackers of sea going vessels, Nigeria's output in January topped 80, 000 barels per day on her December figure of 2.0 million barrels per day (mbd).
The figure would now amount to 376,000 barrels per day above the country's quota in the exporters' group which ahs been battling price crash in the export value of the commodity which supports the annual fiscal budgets and expenditure patterns of member states.
According to the Platts, Nigeria's export figures have continued to rise from 1.85 mbd in September, 2009 to 1.87 mbd in October and 1.9 mbd in November. The country rounded off 2009 with her export recovering from the lows of 1.2 mbd earlier in 2009 to 2.0 mbd in December.
Petroleum Minister, Dr. Rilwanu Lukman said in June 2009 that the nation's oil production had been cut to about 1.5 million b/d, less than half of its capacity, confirming Platts estimates.
Nigeria's oil revenues were correspondingly cut by half in the first quarter of 2009 compared to the previous quarter, official statistics showed, largely due to security issues in the oil-producing Niger Delta.
Sales in the first quarter of 2009 earned N735.4 billion ($4.9 billion), sharply down from the previous quarter's $9.86 billion, according to figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics.
"Crude oil exports stood at N735.4 billion ($4.9 billion), a sharp decrease of N734.2 billion or 99.8 percent over that of fourth quarter 2008," the bureau said.
The total trade figure for the first quarter of 2009 was N1.975 trillion, indicating a drop of N 572.5 billion or 29 percent over the fourth quarter of 2008, it said.
Officials in the petroleum ministry and its parastatals attribute the country's rapid recovery of crude production to the amnesty deal between the federal government and the militants whose aggression to the industry raise security premium that reduced output.
But the amnesty deal nearly ran aground following the political intrigues that trailed the health of the president and the applications of constitutional provisions to close the power vacuum created by the protracted absence of the president and the error of not handing over state functions to his vice.
Whereas the president's absence stalled implementation of the amnesty deal with militants, the gunmen were also wary of the seeming scheme by the northern political cliques in the federal cabinet to diminish the office of the vice president who hails from the Niger Delta.
The impasse over the status of the vice president in the prevailing political situation is believed to be the reason for the militants to call off their unilateral ceasefire against government's oil interests in the Niger Delta, raising concerns in the industry over return of downturn due to security tension.
The ceasefire declared by the main militant group, MEND, in October 2009, came to an end according to a statement from the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND).
The statement, issued on January 30, warned oil companies in the Niger Delta to cease and desist all operations or face grave repercussions.
The statement read: "The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta warns all oil companies to halt operations as any operational installation attacked will be burnt to the ground."
Giving the reasoning behind the end of the ceasefire MEND spokesman, Jomo Gbomo said: "After careful consideration and extensive consultation, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) today, Saturday, January 30, 2010, has decided to call off a unilateral ceasefire ordered on Sunday, October 25, 2009."
On Monday, February 1, Shell was forced to shut three oil flow stations in the Niger Delta after company spokesperson Precious Okolobo said in an emailed statement that a pipeline was vandalized.
The leak occurred on January 30 on the Trans-Ramos pipeline although no group including MEND claimed responsibility. However, the next day the military Joint Task Force (JTF) in collaboration with Shell, denied the attack on the Shell Trans-Ramos pipeline was an act of sabotage, claiming it was an attempt to steal crude oil.
But MEND contended that that the pipeline incident was neither attributable to its members nor to crude oil thieves. MEND had in the past admitted it stole crude oil justifiably to fund its liberation of the host communities.
Spokesman, Gbomo Jomo, issued another statement that said, "No bunkerer breaches pipelines with explosives as was done in this attack."
The MEND spokesman continued his warning by saying, "MEND hereby promises to re-visit the Trans-Ramos pipeline which we attacked in June last year after it has been repaired, as well as other oil facilities around the Niger Delta in the weeks to come."
However, all issues relating to implementation of the keys terms of the celebrated amnesty deal that got trapped in the uncertainty over the health of President Umaru Yar'Adua whose protracted overseas medical treatment created power vacuum, and the political intrigues over the role of his vice in the circumstances, were recently resolved with ratification of the status of the Vice President Goodluck Jonathan as the Acting President.
Last week, Acting President Goodluck Jonathan summoned several executives from foreign oil companies to meet with top officials in an initial effort to breathe life into the nation's ailing energy sector just after assuming the duties.
According to Presidential Adviser on Petroleum Resources, Dr. Emmanuel Egbogah, executives from Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Shell, among other companies, attended the meeting with government officials.
Focal points of the talks were the activities militants who have sabotaged pipelines, disrupting production and oil prices.
Industry analysts and officials expressed the belief that Acting President Jonathan's ethnic background could help him work with militants in consolidating the peace proces.
Dr. Egbogah said: "There's concern that the militants are getting irritated and worried."
Under the peace program that began last summer, the Nigerian government has essentially paid militants to lay down their arms.
However, the delta's main militant group recently called off its cease fire because of its unhappiness over how little money the government is putting into the region.
Group CEO of Oando PLc, Mr. Wale Tinubu, Nigeria's biggest independent energy company by revenue and oil production, said Mr. Jonathan's ascent to power could spur the reconciliation process between the government and militants.
"Jonathan will make a renewed push towards peace in the Delta and I do believe that will reassure investors in the oil industry," said Mr. Tinubu, who was not at the government meeting.
Nigeria has long been a key crude supplier to the U.S. and Europe, but its oil-pumping capacity has flattened out over the past five years or so.
Output from new and lucrative Nigerian offshore oil projects has been offset by regular militant attacks -- and by natural decline rates -- at onshore locations.
U.K. consultants Wood Mackenzie estimate that Nigeria's actual oil production could hit three million barrels a day by 2016, from just over two million a day currently, representing a sharp revision downward from projections a few years ago.
"Nigeria's reserves are probably still there but the growth in output is a lot slower" because of lagging investment and fewer barrels being generated from aging fields, said Stewart Williams, a senior Africa energy analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Foreign executives have been concerned not only by the militant attacks, but also by pending petroleum-industry legislation.
The legislation is likely to result in higher taxes and reduced profits for oil companies, but it has stalled as Nigeria's president was out of the country.
Mr. Yar'Adua traveled to Saudi Arabia in November for medical treatment for a heart condition and hasn't been seen in public since.
Mr. Williams of Wood Mackenzie says if long-delayed oil legislation were to be passed, and approved with Mr. Jonathan's backing, such a move could face questions.
Political opponents, for instance, may challenge its legality, since Mr. Jonathan is acting simply as interim president.
Mr. Jonathan has tried to make his presence felt quickly.
Even before taking up his new post, Mr. Jonathan wrote a letter to the country's oil minister, asking him to halt all sales of oil blocks until the political vacuum had been addressed.
Then, hours after giving a national television address accepting his new position, Mr. Jonathan demoted the country's attorney general, Michael Aondoakaa, to minister of special duties.
Some lawmakers have questioned Mr. Jonathan's use of executive power.
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